Investing, markets, and financial thinking.
If you read enough personal finance books you’re bound to come across the parable about the businessman and the fisherman. I’ve certainly read the story numerous times. It goes something like this: An American businessman is vacationing in a small coastal vill…
Greg Leonard, author of the August 2026 SSRN working paper “Revealing the Illiquidity Premium: The Role of Short Sale Constrained Stocks,” argues that the apparently weak illiquidity premium in U.S.
In the paper "Monetary Policy and the Secular Decline in Long-term Interest Rates: A Global Perspective", the authors document that the changes in yields during the three-day windows around FOMC meetings account for approximately 70%% of the secular decline in…
Another 50 or 100 basis points in hikes will do almost nothing to bring down inflation
I think I don’t have to belabour the point that many (most?
A reader asked me to review a new paper on Gary Antonacci’s Global Equities Momentum strategy.
Bull markets vs. bear markets. The post The Bear Markets appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
China is embedding more service value added into its manufactured exports; the rest of the world is not.
Thursdays are all about longform links on Abnormal Returns. Wherever possible, free links for premium sites are used. You can check out...
The paper “Forecast-to-Fill: Benchmark-Neutral Alpha and Billion -Dollar Capacity in Gold Futures (2015-2025)” shows how a NASA physicist and MIT engineers would think about building a trend model. It is very similar to what we see with traditional trend-follo…
Richard Posner was a giant in the study of economics and law. He died yesterday. He was a towering professor of law and a respected federal appellate judge who focused on the intersection of economic theory and legal decision-making. His book, The Economic Ana…
There’s far too much slack in the global economy for a genuine inflation scare
On Tuesday, I wrote about a study by the OECD that compared start-up financing in the EU and the US.
The idea that inflation is a monetary phenomenon fell out of favor in the 1980's. It made a comeback in the the pre-GFC period, but then was dismissed in the post_GFC period when inflation was tame during a period of high money growth. Money again became impor…
from Ruuj @RuOnchain1 The map of quant strategies provides a good starting point for discussing the available choices. You need to think about holding periods and capacity. A strategy has constraints that will limit how much can be extracted from the market. T…
The Fed is reversing its 2025 cuts, which were the genesis of the debasement trade
Buying a good business and making a good investment are not the same thing.
Wednesdays are all about personal finance here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at the...
On today’s show we discuss how price sets the narrative, the blue tsunami, data center backlash, Thursday’s stock market wipeout, why everyone is always wrong about the markets, recency bias in politics, the market’s response to the mid-terms, Jensen Huang’s a…
We learned a lot about what’s going on with gold from yesterday’s upside CPI surprise
In March, I wrote a post titled ‘Trust the dollar, not the Treasury’ where I argued that investors are increasingly losing trust in the US Treasury and the paper it issues, but retain faith in the US dollar.
Some thoughts on the craziest week of the year. The post This is Why You Need a Plan appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
Today’s hot CPI is a vestige of the recent spike in oil prices - 50 bps isn’t happening
One of the most persistent debates in private equity due diligence is what to make of it when a general partner comes back to market with a substantially larger fund than its predecessor.
Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s edition including a look at...
Inflation still needs to be controlled, with October CPI at 3.7% and CPI excluding food and energy rising to 2.6%. Energy prices have fallen since the beginning of the month, but the numbers still aren’t headed in the right direction. Still, this forces the Fe…