Investing, markets, and financial thinking.
“Partial knowledge is more often victorious than full knowledge: it conceives things that are simpler than they are and therefore makes its opinion easier to grasp and more persuasive." - Nietzche "History will justify anything. It teaches precisely nothing, f…
We can think of two components of intelligence. Both are needed to be an effective trader or investor. First, an intelligent person needs to effectively adapt to an environment. Resources are needed manage the environment so an individual must have the capabil…
James March is one of the great professors of organizational management, yet finance and investment professionals rarely discuss or even consider much of his work. This is odd because organizations, not individuals, make so many investment decisions. Organizat…
My mid-week morning reads: • Costly Medicine: Claudia Sahm on Fed Week — the FOMC is highly likely to hike a quarter point Wednesday, and the Middle East and AI headlines stealing attention are the same stories driving the inflation risk. (Claudia Sahm) • The…
Here’s three questions I think the press should ask Warsh today
It won’t surprise anyone when I say that central bankers, just like the rest of us, rely to some extent on their lifetime experiences when they do their job.
Rising rates, higher inflation and falling PE ratios. The post Why Are Valuations Falling in a Bull Market? appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
For years, researchers have debated whether the enormous anomaly zoo in asset pricing contains genuine information or just a collection of fragile patterns that vanish under scrutiny.
Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s edition including a look at...
The share of dollars has been declining, but not consistently across countries. Some have increased their dollar share while others have reduced their dollar exposure. In a NY Fed blog posting, “Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?” the authors try t…
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Seth Bernstein, Chief Executive Officer of AllianceBernstein, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Blo…
A few months ago, I analyzed U.S. stock returns over the last century. Today, I'm going to determine the best portfolio over the last 50 years among the following asset classes: U.S. Stocks International Stocks Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) U.S. Corpor…
My Two-for-Tuesday morning reads: • What if Elon Musk Was Always Elon Musk? The most disturbing part of the controversial new four-hour documentary. (Slate) • Why So Many AI Researchers Think the Machines Could Kill Everyone: A combination of rapid advances, r…
The Fed will hike and then the press conference will be a bit of a train wreck
What happens when a country (e.g.
There is consternation in the bond markets that may be unwarranted. Rates are higher, and the sell-off has been strong, but we are returning to the normality seen before the GFC. Was the post-GFC period normal, or is the current environment, with a positive re…
Mondays are all about financial adviser-related links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at...
For decades, the finance literature has documented a well-known pattern: at the market level, stock returns and volatility move in opposite directions — when prices fall, volatility spikes.
The spread between the benchmark 10-year French (OAT) government bond and the German Bund is currently trading at 94 bps.
For the second time in as many years, RWM made the Barron’s Top 100 RIA List. What makes this year’s list especially interesting is both its focus on private equity’s entry into the advisor space — and our decision to avoid that approach. Follow our history fr…
An important news article states that Euronext is open to a merger with Deutsche Börse, which would be an important step in the one-European-exchange move to unify rules and regulations for stock trading; that is the hope. One of the most urgent and important…
On today's Animal Spirits Talk Your Book we speak to Christian Munafo from VanEck about AI IPOs, the trouble facing unicorn late stage growth companies, the liquidity problem for private market investors, secondary transactions, where to find value in today's…
A great selection of charts about capex, earnings, net stock issuance, dividend plays, bonds under pressure, big hedge funds, institutional asset owners, and hockey stick moves.
My latest opinion piece for Reuters is out this morning.
My back-to-work morning reads: • What Years of Inflation Have Done to American Prices: Life has gotten a lot more expensive over the past few years. Across the economy, the cost of goods and services has soared. Consumer prices overall have risen more than 30…
The key event this week isn’t the Fed hike - which is a given - it’s the press conference
I don’t have to tell anyone living in Europe in the summer of 2026 that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
Pros and cons of tax-aware long/short strategies. The post People Hate Paying Taxes More Than They Like Making Money appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...