A Second Look at CAIE: Correcting What I Got Wrong About Calamos’s Strategy
When a consulting client first asked my opinion on the Calamos U.S.
Finance
Larry’s Substack.
Larry Swedroe on investing, markets, and economic evidence.
Recent essays
30 of 112AI Is Growing the Pie — But Not Sharing It Equally
What a Major New Study Tells Investors and Advisors About the Real Economic Impact of AI
Shining a Light on Private Credit
Building a Benchmark from the Shadows
CAIE and Autocallable Structured Note ETFs: A Risk Analysis
I was recently asked my opinion on the Calamos US Equity Autocallable Income ETF (CAIE).
Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements?
Large language models have transformed how we interact with information.
What Do We Actually Know About Private Fund Performance? A Major New Study Has Answers
For decades, institutional investors have poured capital into private markets—buyout funds, venture capital, private credit, real estate, and infrastructure—with the belief that these asset classes offer superior returns over public markets.
Machine Learning Can’t Pick Winning Funds. But It Can Help You Avoid Losers
A new study overturns claims that AI can generate positive alpha in mutual funds. Here are some practical takeaways for investors
A Century of Stock Market Winners—and Why Most Stocks Failed to Deliver
The compound buy-and-hold return to the entire U.S. stock market over more than 100 years was 1,504,057%. Yet the median individual stock lost money.
The Curious Case of the Declared “Dead” Factors (Part II)
The Curious Case of the Declared “Dead” Factors (Part II)
When Everyone Trades the Same Factor Playbook
For decades, academic researchers have catalogued hundreds of patterns in the stock market — statistical regularities linking firm characteristics to future returns.
The Curious Case of “Dead” Factors
Much has been written about the supposed death of the value and size premiums.
Software, Moats, and Value Traps
Software stocks have cratered.
Is AI Priced for Perfection?
“There’s an old saying that, on Wall Street, there are no bad ideas, only good ideas taken too far.”
The Fiscal Deficit Trap: Why the Standard Recession Playbook No Longer Works
The war in Iran has elevated recession risk in the US, and it is not from a position of fiscal strength — a shift that changes what investors have thought they knew about how recessions end.
Private Equity’s Hidden Truth: What Confidential SEC Data Reveals
The debate over private equity performance has been plagued by self-selection bias—funds volunteered their performance numbers to third-party vendors primarily to attract new investors.
Private Credit Risk: Look Past the Default Rate
Private credit has become one of the most talked-about corners of the market, but much of the discussion revolves around the wrong metric.
The MAX Anomaly Revisited: What New Research Reveals About Lottery Stock Investing
If you’ve been following behavioral finance research, you’ve probably heard about the “MAX anomaly”—the puzzling finding that stocks with extreme positive daily returns tend to underperform going forward.
Why Stocks Sometimes Fall for No Obvious Reason
A look at the hidden role of private markets in public stock volatility.
The Active vs. Passive Distinction Is Broken — And It Matters
Why lumping factor funds with stock-pickers distorts the scorecard and misleads investors
Beyond the Hype: How AI Adoption is Quietly Reshaping Corporate Efficiency
A look at new research connecting AI adoption to measurable productivity gains—and what it means for investors
Private Credit Risk: Look Past the Default Rate
Private credit has become one of the most talked-about corners of the market, but much of the discussion revolves around the wrong metric.
Why Momentum Investing Has Been Struggling—And What Volatility Has to Do With It
The Big Picture
After Brutal Run Of Underperformance, Is The Value Premium Back?
Brian Chingono’s March 16, 2016, Verdad research paper, “Hope Springs Eternal,” tackles an important question for value investors: after a brutal stretch of underperformance, is the value premium really back, and if so, how long might it last?
When Analysts Get It Wrong: Expectation Bias, Market Inefficiency, and What It Means for Investors
For decades, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) has been the central pillar of modern finance, asserting that asset prices fully and immediately incorporate all available information.
Does Academic Research Actually Give Investors an Edge? A New Study Says Probably Not
What happens when researchers pit peer-reviewed finance studies against a simple computer search of economically meaningful accounting ratios?
Private Credit: The Market’s Quiet Stabilizer
The prevailing narrative in financial markets has painted nonbank lenders as procyclical actors who amplify credit booms, then retreat faster than traditional banks when conditions deteriorate.
Beyond The Hype: What Really Drives IPO Prices?
The familiar “IPO pop” may not be a sign of a bargain.
AI Isn’t the Boom, or the Bust, Many Expect. Here’s What That Means for Investors
A landmark 2026 survey offers a more grounded roadmap for investing in an AI-driven economy.
How Looking Back One Year Can Transform Your Small Cap Returns
New research from Bridgeway Capital Management reveals that a simple redefinition of small cap—asking where a stock was last year, not just today—can more than double the return premium.
Can You Time NAV Prices in a Private Debt Fund? What the Research Says About CCLFX
Illiquid assets trade infrequently, which makes it hard to know their true market value in real time.