It Makes a Difference Who You Are
Disney long sought to serve a broad swath of consumers. No more.
FinanceCulture
Better Letter.
Investment insights, behavioral finance, and cultural observations.
Recent essays
20 of 20Forecasting Follies 2025
A dash of fun and accountability.
Strong-Link Problems
The first of two parts on seeking a fat-tailed life.
Incentivized Stupidity
Stupidity comes in different flavors.
Always Invert
In honor of the new book by Barry Ritholz.
Everybody Needs Accountability
Are you accountable?
House of Mirrors
We ought to test and keep testing our ideas. Doing so is hard.
Bracketology (2025 Edition)
I love March Madness.
Not Totally Worthless
I hated being an attorney, but I gained a lot from it.
How You Doin'?
Benchmarking, in essence, is asking, "How you doin'?"
What They Do...
...(and who they do it to).
Things Change
Things change more and faster than we think.
2024 Forecasting Follies
TBL's annual look at the "best" in human forecasting.
Miss Me?
Merry Christmas from TBL.
Only Human
How to start getting better.
Value for Money
The most difficult investment problem in the world.
Finding What We’re Not Looking For
You aren't the center of the universe. Me, neither.
Every Highway
What we hear isn't always what is.
The Necessary Leap
Should we always follow the evidence?
Fool's Errand
We can't predict market action for human reasons and for structural reasons, too.