Six days to go…
It is Friday, 5 June and only six days to go until the FIFA World Cup starts again.
Finance
Klement on Investing.
Thoughts on financial markets by Joachim Klement.
Recent essays
30 of 117Fund managers tell you when they will outperform
Last year, I wrote a post showing that hedge fund managers have an inkling when they are going to underperform, and it can be measured with their SEC Form PF filings.
Bigger city, lower property yields
Runaway housing costs are such a big issue that even in the notoriously divided US Senate, 89 out of the 100 senators recently voted to pass the most ambitious legislation in decades to bring down housing costs.
Which analysts add value?
Analysts (and strategists and economists) are trying to bring order into the chaos of financial markets.
Are auditors good stock pickers?
We all know the studies that examine the returns of politicians in the US. For some reason, US politicians are insiders on key regulatory and legal changes but somehow not exempt from trading individual stocks. But there is another group of professionals who h…
What if the AI boom goes into reverse?
My latest piece for Reuters is online.
Sunny, not too hot, not too cold
It is the time of year when high school students pay their first visits to US college campuses and decide where to apply.
If your peer does it, do you do it, too?
Businesses everywhere are currently trying to figure out if and how to use AI to improve business processes.
All you need is growth
Trust in government has sunk to all-time lows across most developed countries.
From data centres to higher electricity prices
The massive demand for electricity from data centres is increasingly straining supply.
Heal the World, buy green investments
Normally, crazy useless studies tend to come from Chinese universities, but this one came from the RWTH in Aachen, Germany, proving once and for all that Germans do have a sense of humour…
How big is space?
This month, SpaceX may become the largest IPO in history.
The impossible maths of the AI boom
A couple of months ago I wrote in my regular Reuters column about LLMs and why I think they do not have a sustainable business model. In a second piece, which is based on an extensive research note I wrote I turn my attention to hyperscalers and the datacentre…
Rebuilding Ukraine is not going to be easy
Earlier this year, I wrote in my regular Reuters column about the huge investment opportunity from the reconstruction of Ukraine, once the war there ends.
What happens when you stop low-skilled immigration
OK, I am wading into a politically charged area again, but stay with me.
Corruption doesn’t pay, unless it’s no longer prosecuted
I admit, I am ambivalent about bribery.
Seems like I am never going to get a midlife crisis
I always thought I would get the mother of all midlife crises.
More defence spending is good for the economy
Last year, I wrote a post explaining why defence spending tends to increase economic growth.
It’s a lazy week
Yesterday, I gave professional investors an idea of how to be lazy when it comes to market returns in the second month of a quarter.
Just do what you did last month
If you are a professional investor covering US or European stocks, you are about to come to the end of another busy earnings season.
Slashing immigration could lead to higher taxes
My latest opinion piece for Reuters Open Interest is out this morning.
Repeat after me: Higher minimum wages are good for business
Increases in minimum wages in a country or different states of the US are sure to make headlines.
The name is Spy, Corporate Spy
Espionage is a constant threat to governments and the military everywhere.
Labour shortages are coming. What are businesses going to do?
In an ageing population, labour shortages are intensifying gradually as the working-age population starts to shrink.
AI can’t even forecast inflation
Most readers will be aware that the US Department of Defence has signed a contract with OpenAI to use their models to develop AI weapon systems.
Are stocks a good inflation hedge?
Longtime readers of mine will know that I do not believe in the story that stocks are a hedge against inflation.
The real reason why some companies are moving to the US
Sometimes, you come across a story that seems too good to be true.
Unpredictability creates alpha: Fund picking
Yesterday, I wrote about a new paper by Lauren Cohen and her colleagues that trained an AI to forecast the investment decisions of fund managers.
Unpredictability creates alpha: Stock picking
Regular readers of these missives know that I sometimes come across papers that are so full of important insights that I discuss them in several posts.
Is nonlinear momentum the answer?
I have been harping on about how life is nonlinear and that linear approaches to investing are bound to be inferior (see here for an example in economics and one in finance).