The Case Against Fed Rate Hikes
Another 50 or 100 basis points in hikes will do almost nothing to bring down inflation
EconomicsFinance
Robin J Brooks.
Robin Brooks on FX, macro, and the plumbing of global capital flows — Brookings senior fellow, former chief economist at IIF.
Recent essays
30 of 197The Case Against This Inflation Scare
There’s far too much slack in the global economy for a genuine inflation scare
Is the Debasement Trade Over?
The Fed is reversing its 2025 cuts, which were the genesis of the debasement trade
How Much Does a Hawkish Fed Hurt Gold?
We learned a lot about what’s going on with gold from yesterday’s upside CPI surprise
Is the Fed Going to Hike 50 bps?
Today’s hot CPI is a vestige of the recent spike in oil prices - 50 bps isn’t happening
Post-Midterm Regime Change at the Fed
The midterms are making Tehran more compliant and will make the Fed more dovish
Everything Is An Oil Trade
The Dollar, France’s spread over Bunds, gold and silver - everything is an oil trade
Outlook for Markets after the Midterms
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
The End of the Strong Dollar Interregnum
This year’s Dollar strength has been an interlude due to the war and spiking oil prices
The Dollar and Precious Metals after the Midterms
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How the AI Sell-Off Reveals Fiscal Strain
Long Treasury yields aren’t down despite the AI rout, so their rise is about big deficits
How the War with Iran Ends
The blockade of Iran relies on a “fear factor,” which has been lost after the midterms
Lessons from the Midterms
My takeaways from the midterms for policy and markets
Markets After the Blue Wave
Everything still depends on the war with Iran and oil prices
US Yield Curve Control
The building blocks for yield curve control are falling into place
What to Make of the Latest Fall in Oil Prices
Yesterday’s sharp fall underscores that a very large risk premium is priced into Brent
How Will Markets Trade the Midterm Elections?
They won’t - there’s way too much event risk around the restart of a “hot” war with Iran
How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?
A ten percent jump in oil prices - if it happens - maps into a four percent drop in gold
Markets on the Eve of War
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
Markets on the Eve of War
Markets have this week moved to fully price in a return to a “hot” war with Iran
Is Kevin Warsh a Dove or a Hawk?
If you were to consult Yoda from Star Wars on this, he’d say: “wrong question that is.”
How to Think About Marine Le Pen
Le Pen will be like Meloni - a toothless administrator constrained by too much debt
Why is the Dollar so Strong?
The Dollar isn’t strong because of the Fed or France - it’s strong because of oil
How Will Markets Trade the Fed?
It’s hard to sound hawkish in the press conference when you haven’t actually hiked
The Story About How Fed QE Went Bad
How is US fiscal policy ever going to get fixed if the Fed caps yields in bad shocks?
How the ECB Will Help France
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How the ECB Will Help France
If the sell-off in French debt worsens, the ECB will obviously intervene
Is China driving up oil prices?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
What’s Priced into Brent at $117?
A big risk premium has gotten priced in anticipation of a return to a “hot” war