Questions for Kevin Warsh
Here’s three questions I think the press should ask Warsh today
EconomicsFinance
Robin J Brooks.
Robin Brooks on FX, macro, and the plumbing of global capital flows — Brookings senior fellow, former chief economist at IIF.
Recent essays
30 of 112How Will Markets Trade the Fed?
The Fed will hike and then the press conference will be a bit of a train wreck
The Dollar into the FOMC
The key event this week isn’t the Fed hike - which is a given - it’s the press conference
The Saudi Pipeline Attack and Oil Prices
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How to Think About the Saudi Pipeline Attack
The attack on the East-West pipeline won’t meaningfully disrupt Saudi oil exports
The Perfect Nightmare for Kevin Warsh
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
The Perfect Nightmare for Kevin Warsh
Yesterday’s “hot” CPI really wasn’t hot, but the Fed now has no choice but to hike
The Global Debt Shock
If rising yields are about growth, why are they up in France, Japan, Italy and the UK?
The Dollar Debasement Trap
No government can match the might of global markets - not even the US government
China Doesn’t Set Global Oil Prices
Oil prices won’t go meaningfully above $100 and that’s got nothing to do with China
Will Oil Prices Spike Again?
The kind of highs we saw earlier this year are no longer possible now
What the Rise of Germany’s AfD Means
The rise of Germany’s AfD will bring massive changes, including the end of the Euro
The Economic Meltdown of Iran
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
What is the Debasement Trade?
What’s driving this trade, what assets are in it, and how much further will it go?
Is the Fed going to hike?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
Will the Fed Hike?
Neither inflation nor the labor market call for a hike, but long yields may require one
Did Japan Just Intervene Again?
Of course it did - I can’t believe there’s even a debate about this
The Meltdown of the Iranian Rial
The greater efficacy of the blockade since its reinstatement is causing the Rial to implode
Anatomy of the Global Bond Market Sell-Off
The sell-off we’re seeing is global and has been ongoing - in fits and starts - since 2022
US Debt is in Worse Shape than you Think
US data have surprised on the weak side for the past month, but yields have risen anyway
Market Complacency on US Fiscal Risk
When you compare the US to the rest of the G10, there’s no sign of a fiscal risk premium
Will a September Hike Hurt Gold?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
Will a September Hike Hurt Gold?
In normal times, a Fed hike would hurt gold, but we’re no longer in normal times
The New Treasury-Fed Accord Takes Shape
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
The New Treasury-Fed Accord Takes Shape
Yesterday’s Warsh speech successfully contained the rise in long-term Treasury yields
What Will Kevin Warsh Say?
Warsh can’t afford to sound dovish, because that’ll send long-term yields up again
Is the AI Buildout Pushing Up Yields?
The principal driver of rising yields is the massive budget deficit, not the AI buildout
The Economic Implosion of Iran
Don’t believe all the nonsense about how Iran has asymmetric leverage over the US
The Battle Against the Bond Vigilantes
Headlines are fast and furious on how Treasury wants to keep long-term yields down
The EM Carry Trade Takes Off
Artificial yield caps in the G10 are a subsidy for the carry trade to emerging markets