5. Finding Needles in Haystacks
AI in fraud detection and compliance
Economics
Arpitrage.
Finance, Real Estate, and Urban Economics.
Recent essays
26 of 26Industrial Policy for Housing Abundance
Tackling the next housing bottleneck around construction productivity
4. The End of Market Intelligence and the Last Analyst
The escalating arms race in text analysis, and whether you can simulate your customers
3. The Cause of and Solution to all of Life's Problems
AI in risk assessment and management, and why better models create new risks
2. When Your AI is Lying To You
Financial Document Intelligence, Hallucinations, and how to Ground AI in Reality
1. Three Rules for AI in Finance
Why I'm teaching a new course on AI in Finance
Remote Work's Impact on Productivity
Why Startups Thrive while Big Companies Struggle with Remote Work
Can a Transformer “Learn” Economic Relationships?
Revisiting the Lucas Critique in the Age of Transformers
Wall Street Investors Enter Single Family Rentals
Assessing the impact of speculators on housing markets
Measuring Housing Regulations at Scale
What AI-Generated Data Show about Rent Extraction and Exclusionary Zoning
Property Taxes and Housing Allocation under Financial Constraints
How Property Taxes Could Restore Housing Affordability for Young Families
The Rise of Rapid Regional Rail
Why the US should invest in new suburban high speed rail
Contra Strong Towns
Why a Popular Anti-Suburban Thesis Doesn't Hold Up
Unlock a Housing Boom through Depreciation Bonuses
How Financial Frictions are holding back Housing and Taxes can Help
Why FinTech Failed
Explaining the Reasons Technology Hasn't Competed Away Financial Rents
The Bronze Trade Origins of Cities
Why Metals Explain The Rise of Civilization
The Goods-Services Rotation Theory of Inflation
Why the pandemic sectoral reallocation of consumption provides the best account of the last few years
Office to Residential Conversions
Redeploying Real Estate to Address the Urban Doom Loop
Rethinking Public Procurement
The Hidden Drivers of High Costs and Strategies for Reform
What's Going on with China's Stagnation?
Real Estate Boom-Busts and Soft Budget Constraints
Correcting the "Europe is Stagnant" Narrative
More nuance in US vs. Europe comparisons
Cracks in the Concrete: Banks and the Strain on Commercial Real Estate
Office Apocalypse Meets Twitter Bank Runs
The Newer Geography of Jobs
Corporate Back to Work Plans Can Map Urban Recovery
A Harberger Tax on Patents
Self-assessing innovation taxes for fun and profit
Limits of Macroprudential Policy, and Impacts of Healthcare Costs on Small Firms
Job Market Paper Roundup
Loss for Prediction Markets in the Election
But still some hope for expert information aggregation systems